![]() These exclude any commitments to enact new policies, such as those within the Paris Agreement up to 20. The SSPs also define different baseline worlds that might occur in the absence of any concerted international effort to address climate change, beyond those already adopted by countries. Whereas the SSPs set the stage on which reductions in emissions will – or will not – be achieved. The RCPs set pathways for greenhouse gas concentrations and, effectively, the amount of warming that could occur by the end of the century. The two efforts were designed to be complementary. ![]() These “ Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs) look at five different ways in which the world might evolve in the absence of climate policy and how different levels of climate change mitigation could be achieved when the mitigation targets of RCPs are combined with the SSPs. These include things such as population, economic growth, education, urbanisation and the rate of technological development. They developed four pathways, spanning a broad range of forcing in 2100 (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 watts per meter squared), but purposefully did not include any socioeconomic “narratives” to go alongside them.Ī second group worked on modelling how socioeconomic factors may change over the next century. One group of researchers then developed the “ Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs), describing different levels of greenhouse gases and other radiative forcings that might occur in the future. When increased greenhouse gases result in incoming energy being greater than outgoing energy, the planet will warm due… Read More Radiative Forcings: Radiative forcing is the difference between incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth’s climate. They suggest, for example, that a future with “resurgent nationalism” and a fragmentation of the international order could make the “well below 2C” Paris target impossible. They show that it would be much easier to mitigate and adapt to climate change in some versions of the future than in others. ![]() Compared to previous scenarios, these offer a broader view of a “business as usual” world without future climate policy, with global warming in 2100 ranging from a low of 3.1C to a high of 5.1C above pre-industrial levels. The new SSPs offer five pathways that the world could take. They are also being used to explore how societal choices will affect greenhouse gas emissions and, therefore, how the climate goals of the Paris Agreement could be met. These SSPs are now being used as important inputs for the latest climate models, feeding into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report due to be published in 2020-21. ![]() They are collectively known as the “ Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs). Over the past few years, an international team of climate scientists, economists and energy systems modellers have built a range of new “pathways” that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. ![]()
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